> The credible threat I'm talking about is over the International Criminal Court potentially prosecuting American service members
The ICC doesn't execute its arrest warrants. Even if it were stupid enough to issue one for an American's arrest, there would be plenty of time for de-escalation between its issuance and execution.
Sorry, but I think it's bullshit. I understand why they would write some paper with threats to put some pressure on Netherlands, but actually acting on it is completely ridiculous if you do a very simple pros and cons balance.
The ICC doesn't execute its arrest warrants. Even if it were stupid enough to issue one for an American's arrest, there would be plenty of time for de-escalation between its issuance and execution.