well, it certainly looks like the cap leaked. new caps don't usually do that even if they're crap. It's also interesting that it was the same one each time, seeing as how all those caps are identical. i do think you made the right call, if it was some sort of glue to prevent vibration, it would be on all of them (it's definitely not conformal coating)
Thanks, yeah it is strange that the same capacitor leaked on both boards. Actually there was a second capacitor on my first "bad" board that might have also been leaking, but I never pictured it. It was less obvious. Also, I only saw 2 "bad" boards myself, so maybe it's just coincidence.
A friend thought maybe that capacitor was getting squeezed during production, or the board is just designed such that that capacitor is more likely to fail.