The difference in the cost of compute between 2026 and 2036 won’t be nearly as large as the difference in the cost of compute between 2016 and 2026. Even at 2016 the slowdown in improvements was noticeable.
We might see a one time bump in inference when we move off GPUs onto more limited and efficient dedicated hardware, but the sustained fast pace of improvements are far behind us.
I'm predicting now that there is a clear use-case for this tech that work will (and has) accelerate specialized hardware, software, models, etc that will run much more efficiently in 10 years. So that the real token costs will be a fraction of what they are now.
You can run models on FPGAs and get massive cost, speed, and throughput gains (like 10x). The reason people don’t do it is because of other improvements (algorithmic) means that nobody really thinks locking into a model makes sense…yet. Would I want to use gpt 4o for anything today at 1/10th the price? That would be $0.40 per input, $1.50 per output. Gemma-4 31b is much more capable and cheaper. So a FPGA version of the model is just not worth it today.
But if progress begins to slow down, then the economics work. Maybe Gemma 4 is a good example. It feels really generally useful. Getting it at 1/10th the cost feels like it could be competitive in 2 years.
The fpga would be for prototyping. The real progress comes from asics ... exactly as we saw with bitcoin mining. This GPU-based approach will eventually give way to bespoke circuits once everyone picks a favorite model.
Yeah I went shopping for a new computer a couple of years ago (to replace a 7 year old computer) and... the specs for what was for sale were the same as what I bought 7 years prior, and the price wasn't much lower.
I would much rather buy a 2026 computer than a 2019 computer. Two generations of Nvidia GPUs, Apple M series chips, the X3D AMD chips, and pcie5 ssds are all major upgrades.
It’s just that the pace of new stuff is slowing down, and many people are operating under the assumption that this wave will ride on forever.
How can node scripts write to files, make network requests, etc etc without any standard library? Of course it has a standard library. You could maybe say javascript doesn't have much of a standard library (Array, String, Promise, Error, etc) but js is used with a runtime that will have a standard library.
I literally just built a house for ~$60k a couple years ago. A burned out trailer even in a rural shithole with no jobs in my state is about $100k+. An actual functional house, $250k+. This is counter-intuitive but it makes sense in context of the recent COVID 0 real interest mania.
Meanwhile all the shithole land with no "dwelling" on it was never eligible for mortgages so people weren't able to bid it up to oblivion on debt that they locked in with 30 year mortgages so you get weird results like the cost of vacant land is way cheaper than the same piece of land with a house that can really only be bulldozed (latter would be cheaper in most times in history). End result is I built an entire house on property cheaper than a burned out uninhabitable trailer. Building on unmortgagable land is a way to bypass the fact houses are all locked up in 30 year loans at negative real interest rates.
End result is it's far cheaper to build a house than buy even a shitty burned out one because to do the latter you have to buy someone out of their money printing machine of a negative real rate loan, which obviously they are only willing to do for a king's ransom.
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I won't share my address but if you are looking to do this yourself: look up fishing canneries in Alaska, most of them are close enough to cheap plots you could do this on, often even without permits or property tax. These canneries are also usually desperate for workers and pay a livable wage to those with refrigeration technology certifications.
I'd like to see what kind of house you built for 60k. My assumption is its some small maybe 300 sqft box with no sewer you spent many hours yourself building. Not something something most people would do and while cheap in dollars certainly isn't affordable if you are putting a lot of work into it.
It's basically looks like a glorified rectangular shed but it does have sewage, electric, water, and hvac. Not very impressive but every single person I've had over who's lived in an apartment has expressed interest in learning how to do the same over paying rent out the ass for a similarly sized uninspiring shit-box and ending up with no equity.
The only people that have been over that have been unimpressed are people already living in an actual house, but that's not really the target audience for this kind of thing.
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I speculated on an old well share that turned out to be good, so got a well for basically nothing. If you don't have such luck you can haul water.
I use septic, which in some counties (mine) no requirement you be licensed to build. It can be built with only a shovel and some pipes and concrete if you are on an extreme budget, although helps a lot more if you can get ahold of an excavator.
If I understood you correctly, land that has no building on it is not eligible for a mortgage, and is therefore cheaper to buy? With the downside that you have to pay cash, because you can't get a mortgage either?
Yes the land value is so insanely cheaper on un-mortgagable properties in my state, it's off the charts.
I have developed land in my county so I'm familiar with the costs to develop, buy land, place utilities etc. (I did not become a land developer on purpose, only because I realized this absolutely crazy arbitrage)
It would cost you about $200-$250k to buy a rural small acreage land with a manufactured home on it. If you pay cash for the land and drop the exact same manufactured home on it, it would only cost you about $150k, and you would get a brand new house instead of a "used" one.
There is huge pent up demand for someone to just buy a huge swath of small acreage properties and just drop the cheapest manufactured home you could on it as the non-luxury starter home market is currently not being met. You could pretty much double your money. I'm not sure why this isn't being done en masse although a few private actors seem to be doing it and making a killing.
This is not true. Building all types of housing increases the supply of affordable housing.
Build a new luxury apartment, and someone moves from a mid tier apartment into it, and someone moves from an affordable apartment into that, and so on.
Price is a function of constrained supply. The type of supply is not important to increase the numbers.
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