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We are just so addicted in America to these platforms we just can't collectively even start to imagine how the whole world does not want the same addiction.


Ultimately, we basically wallpapered over massive deflation with money printing in 2020.

What is interesting to me given what we have done is how much inflation we still don't have. Right now, the break even inflation rates were still higher in 2008 and 2005.

Of course we were always going to have a surge in the rate of change compared to a year ago when people were are on lockdown.


I think the plan has worked out so far: Prevent asset price deflation (to not trigger too many margin calls) by creating artificial asset price inflation. For now CPI seems to be more or less unaffected which can be seen as a success from the "kicking the can down the road" point of view. I think this comment by Christine Lagarde: "We Should Be Happier to Have a Job Than to Have Our Savings Protected" nails it. Its choosing stability over efficiency to prevent the unrest of the masses.


There was no massive deflation in 2020. Prices started rising because of 'covid shutdowns', and house prices started upping due to lack of inventory.


There has definitely been an increase in the money supply, for example see this chart of the M2:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

"Velocity" as it's called dropped in 2020, but once trading picks up again what happens to all those dollars?

Edit: here's the M1, even more striking: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL


> "Velocity" as it's called dropped in 2020, but once trading picks up again what happens to all those dollars?

They go back where they came from.

The Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away.

When deflation and unemployment are the concerns, you get the gas pedal pushed and easy money policies. When inflation is a concern instead, they hit the breal and you get tight money policies.


The surge in M1 was mostly because of an accounting change:

* https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2021/01/whats-behind-the-rec...

(M2 includes M1, IIRC.)


This poster is correct, I’m not sure why the post is gray. The way M1 is calculated changed last year, read the linked article for proof.


No one is disputing that the money supply has increased dramatically.


Deflation? Are we living in the same universe? The prices have been going up and up and up.

You can probably cherry-pick a few items that went down in price, but the overall trend is crystal clear.


Yea it is all made up. Nero was a great guy.. Come on, really?

IMO Uday Hussein is a good contemporary example of the process at work here. Give a kid absolute power and they are going to evolve crazy tastes and behavior.


What about the breadwinners half the women are saddling up to?

We have never had symmetry as humans in this area. Low status males don't get to fuck as much. That has always been the case for all human history. This is nothing new.


Yes, this is group psychology. Only individuals can really be rational. Once individuals form a psychological group, individuality is lost, rationality is lost with it and everything is controlled by the emotions of the group.

The group has no room for anything really but for the extreme emotional reactions of in-group/out-group psychology and you see this playing out in our society because of social media.

There is literally no room for nuanced discourse between individuals with the way our social media platforms are structured. Individuals will not drive engagement the way groups do.


I think its mostly groups on social media. Some groups can be rational, like a jury, or a committee full of intelligent people. But for them to be rational, there has to be the correct incentives and culture of discussion (i.e. no social media algorithms, or divisive politics).


“Madness is something rare in individuals — but in groups, parties, peoples, and ages, it is the rule.”

― Friedrich Nietzsche, Beyond Good and Evil


Exactly. I am almost 50 myself. Retire and do what? Wait do die? Drink wine all day and wait to die?

There isn't much to me that is worth doing that wouldn't produce some kind of income.

Still so much I want to do yet, I don't have time for retirement.


Ride bicycles and/or motorcycles. Travel. Hike. Read. Learn things. Volunteer. Cooking is fun. Gardening as well.

I'm at a loss for how people can get bored and I don't even game or watch much in the way of movies or television. I think for some people they get attuned to work so much that they don't remember what life is like without it.


Totally agree. I don’t think I’ve been bored since I was a teenager. Every day I think to myself, all the things I could do with extra time in the day, if I didn’t have to work for a living. I am counting down the days until I retire! My nightmare actually is I die the day after I retire, just as I’m getting ready to start living my life!


Have you actually experienced a long period (year or more) with no obligations like work or school? It's much easier to be motivated when you're busy than when there's no real need for your effort or deadline for anything. I know some people manage great and have very active retirements but some just fade into passivity. Keep an eye out for the danger warned by John Mellencamp - "Life goes on long after the thrill of living is gone".


>Have you actually experienced a long period (year or more) with no obligations like work or school?

I have. And have had no problems filling it with the above activities. My folks are retired and don't seem to be having much trouble finding creative projects and enjoyable things to do, like hiking and discovering new things.

Honestly I thought my dad would be a prime candidate for the type who gets so used to chasing the rabbit that they have no idea what to do once they retire. I'm glad to see that isn't the case.


Fantastic. I'm pretty sure I'm the wrong type myself and it's a bit of a worry. Hobbies are a lot more exciting when I don't have time for them.


> Every day I think to myself, all the things I could do with extra time in the day, if I didn’t have to work for a living.

I think about stuff like this too, but then I remember how my existing hobbies are already funded by my job.


Why retire at all? Depending on what you want to do, why not just do it for as long as you can?


Honestly, I think he is kind of a fraud musically.


"Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something."

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html


Really? I mean he has got compositional chops, but not nearly enough to be considered a great composer. Where I find Cage to be a genius is his mastery of generating unique sonic elements. Like his prepared piano peices, as a peice of music, aren't great : but the individual sounds he coaxes out of the piano are awesome. His works are incredibly fertile grounds for sampling, and I draw a lot of inspiration from his use of texture as a compositional theme.

Like his pieces about cacti : can't remember what its called - but the whole thing is just like goopy, bubbly, drippy sounds. Very interesting stuff to me.


Honestly, can you support that nasty claim without revealing that you have only a vague understanding that he did some wacky thing called 4'33"?

Frankly, your lack of citation and supportive reasoning does more to validate the Dunning-Kreuger effect than it does to criticize Cage.


Please don't respond to a bad comment by breaking the site guidelines yourself, and certainly not by crossing into personal attack.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html


Kind of a goofy comment IMO.

My parents are not intellectual in the least. The career advice I received from them growing up was all bad. Lucky for me I ignored them.

Now take one kid getting bad career advice and another kid getting good career advice from mom and dad.

After thousands of iterations the asymmetry is going to be huge.

Sorry that doesn't line up with the institutional victim mentality.


Not sure what you mean by “institutional victim mentality” but I would say that your example is a great example of institutional failure. Ideally kids would get good career advice from many other places (schools etc) which would rectify a lot of the negative damage caused by the bad advice from their parents.


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