This is a spam problem more than anything else. It's not really an AI problem except that it's AI that is enabling this new type of spam.
Imagine there's no AI, but for some reason you have people hiring armies of cheap overseas devs and using them to produce mediocre quality drive-by PRs. The effect would be the same.
AI can be used to make quality code, but that requires careful use of the tool... like any other tool. This isn't careful contributions made by someone who knows the project and its goals and is good at using the tool. This is spam.
Exactly, people could have "consulted Google" or "consulted stack overflow" and had the same issues. It's about the end result, not how the code got to that end result, and the submitter is responsible to make sure of the quality of the submission regardless of whether AI was used or not.
To reject submissions where the dev "consulted ai" is like rejecting iron ore that was mined by a machine rather than a human. The quality of the ore is what should be measured, not how it was obtained.
I agree, but the problem comes back to how to evaluate quality at scale. That is very hard. It’s easier to just say no AI because that at least turns off the fire hose.
I’d say the same thing about Palantir. It’s very clear that they are playing into the hatred and speculation about them to puff themselves up and get attention in the “any attention is good attention” era. Being a literal comic book villain syndicate is sexier than being Millennial/GenZ TRW.
(I am not saying I approve of all the stuff they are being used for or all the statements of its management.)
They align with the actual motives of the people involved, which is lining their pockets. "America first" is for the rubes.
The same is true of "fiscal responsibility." The GOP runs on this, but when they get into power they spend like drunks and run the deficit up. This has been true since Reagan, though Trump represents a huge escalation.
The same has been true with the whole "we're going to get rid of these DEI hires and be purely meritocratic." Okay, then why does the head of the FBI need to blow in a tube to start his car and why are a bunch of unqualified former pundits and podcasters in positions of high authority? Why is the head of the CDC a crackpot who can barely talk?
"A thing is what it does." Ignore rhetoric, look at results. BTW the same rule applies to rhetoric from the other side.
Tangent but: this is also why reducing greenhouse gas emissions is hard.
As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario.
Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they need those margins to catch up.
Which is why I think little progress will be made until other sources are actually cheaper. Until then it’s beyond us politically. We can’t get all nations across the world to simultaneously cooperate at that scale.
> As long as fossil fuels remain one of the cheapest easiest to scale ways to make power, there’s a similar incentive to cheat. If everyone else cuts emissions and you don’t, your margins are higher and you can undercut them. Global reductions require an all-cooperate scenario.
IMO economics always wins. You're never going to see an all-cooperate scenario.
You will see an all-compete scenario, so constantly reducing costs for alternatives is key but you also have to find a way to ensure that the producers can win economically too. This is the conundrum.
If solar panels get cheap enough to create high demand, then that demand has to carry through the process of manufacturing, installing and maintenance. Every time I read that solar has gotten even cheaper, I start calling for quotes to install them at my house and the prices are borderline obscene. Same for geothermal last time I needed to update my HVAC.
I want solar and geothermal to work but the economics are a challenge.
Keep in mind if you are in the US, your prices have been artificially raised by tariffs. 30% starting in 2018, then declining each year for a while to 15%. Those tariffs recently expired but when I searched I saw this article about new tariffs on certain countries solar as high as 123%.
All this to say, you calling a local company and getting quotes captures your price but that’s not quite the same as the global price.
Point being the US government is making them expensive for US consumers but that’s not true for global markets where they want to have energy independence. Solar is in fact very cheap these days.
Tariffs have little to do with install costs in the US. They were horrible before Trump, and aren't much worse today.
The equipment is nearly free compared to the labor to install it. At least the last time I checked. I could do my own DIY system for about 1/4th the cost of one "professionally" installed - and I use the scare quotes for good reason. Most of the installation companies for residential solar exist to sell financing, the solar bit is just an unfortunate tertiary (behind grifting on the green energy credits/tax rebates) concern for most of them.
Panels costing an extra 65% is a rounding error for me. I'd need a whole lot more real estate to put them on for it to become a significant fraction of the total system cost.
And that might even STILL be okay if the quality of engineering and workmanship was decent and available. I'd pay the going rate tomorrow if I could find a highly competent electrician/company to do the over-engineered setup I want today. I'm not interested in saving money - I could care less if it ever pencils out. I'm interested in having a system that can survive a lengthy grid outage situation that is fully redundant and properly engineered to industrial level standards. This is effectively impossible in the US, but friends in other areas of the world have had similar setups installed for years.
In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel
A plug in solar panel and microinverter at the local supermarket is about €1k/kW. 9kW of solar for €9k/£8k/$10.5k to power an average US car and an average US house.
Avearge US car does 13,000 miles a year needs about 4,500kWh, so €4500
An average US home uses 11kWh a day, or 4,000 kWh a year, that would be another €4000
US electric price is an average 17c per kWh. That's a 15% ROI.
I suspect the costs your quoting are mainly things like scaffolding and labour, and that's not going to get cheaper.
The panels themselves - ignoring inverter, install, etc, are $100 for a 400W panel [0]. To generate a whopping 16,000kWh a year -- 70% more than the average -- you'd need to spend $4k on panels. Even if panels were free, your quotes would still be obscene because tradesmen charge obscene amounts (or rather roofing work is just expensive)
> In Europe you get about 1000kWh a year from 1000kW of solar panel
Typo, 1000kWh from 1kW of solar panel.
I got my 4x 455W panels for 70€ each from BayWa (random vendor in Germany), plus delivery. Microinverter ~200€. Aluminium etc for installation ~400€ or so. I installed them together with a friend. Total cost ~900€ or so. At 30ct/kWh in Germany, break even is in 3 years. Would be earlier if I had a better roof to put them on, mine has some shadow.
Agreed - the good news is, in many circumstances renewable energy is cheaper for new energy capacity. As long as regulations move in the right direction, we are likely to see the global energy mix move towards renewable sources over time
Not only is the renewable energy cheaper, it also raises energy independence, which turns out to be quite relevant in today's world.
Furthermore, it also reduces the drain on the (often very fragile, for thirld world countries) foreign reserves, especially relevant when the oil prices fluctuate wildly.
If your solar panels are old and you don't have money to replace them, you get slightly less electricity. If you are out of gasoline/diesel and you have no money to buy it, you have a big, big, problem.
This is exactly why I don't think it's a huge risk to be reliant on China for solar panels. If relations between your country and China go bad, it can't be that much of an emergency when they stop exporting them to you. All the panels you already bought still work!
Unless there is some hidden cybersecurity risk of them shutting off panels remotely?
> Unless there is some hidden cybersecurity risk of them shutting off panels remotely?
The weakest link won't be the panels themselves, but the grid infrastructure, or telephony infrastructure. Unless somehow the chinese were able to embed a radiowave activated kill-switch or something. Highly doubt it!
Yes, exactly. The panel's control system is connected to the Internet and there's an app that an attacker could take advantage of to interfere with critical infrastructure at an inopportune time.
If you are doing grid-scale installation, surely you would want your own control system (perhaps also on your own network, separated from the general internet), precisely in order to protect the grid.
This is no different - either way you are buying a system that includes controls. While separating this from the internet sounds great, in practice internet control is too useful to run without. Maybe you put in a few firewall rules to protect things, but these often are lose enough that a hacker and bypass them (by looking like a legitimate access - since the people who need to access this will want to work from their cell phone)
There’s always the issue that it might be hard to find competent people that can implement a control network isolated from the internet if it has an internet connection by default.
I think right now, the vast majority of oil use is not because of corrupt officials using oil energy despite the fact that cheaper energy sources are available. Maybe that problem will eventually be a sticking point in removing all carbon-emitting energy sources, but right now the barrier is mostly production capacity and the scale of capital investment required to roll out renewables at scale. But if (as seems to be the case now) rolling out renewables is more profitable than rolling out additional fossil fuel use, the capital should become increasingly available. That's why I'm optimistic, even though of course there are a lot of challenges ahead in terms of creating a truly sustainable future.
When speaking about global energy mixes, or even nationwide energy mixes, regulations are just remixing the cost into separate buckets. Subsidizing oil for your citizens costs your country.
Trump did manage to make it more expensive for most of the world, but reversing that chaos is much, much harder.
Renewables (particularly solar) already are cheaper [1].
It's political will not economics that keeps us addicted to fossil fuels. Nobody gets rich from solar panels. You build them. They produce power. Oil wells like any mine are huge wealth concentrators. That's the real problem.
If anything, a bunch of countries (particularly those who are net oil importers) are re-evaluting their energy dependence given that the compact that the US will guarantee maritime transport has essentially been broken.
> Developing nations have the strongest incentive to cheat since they need those margins to catch up
This isn't really how it works, since greenhouse gas output is pretty much corellated to income level, and even that's an understatement, since people in rich countries buy stuff made in poor countries, and manufacturing causes emissions.
The real problem is carbon credits - rich countries can both pollute, and absolve themselves of moral responsibility by buying carbon credits - and said carbon credits are fungible, so countries' compete for the lowest selling price.
So what ends up happening is poor countries sell carbon credits by offering programs and promises, but can't/won't bear the cost, as that would mean they'd have to raise credit prices, and buyers would go elsewhere.
It's a system designed to encourage cheating while absolving moral responsibility.
So little political will is needed at this point as the economics now favor renewables. Unfortunately most of the political will seems to be leaning towards protecting the more expensive fossil fuel sources of energy.
Because the money for politics is in oil. Renewables are investing any dollar they have into building more. Oil has a lot of money that is best invested in politics thus creating the political will.
Don't worry too much, the return on investment of renewables is much better than politics. Politics can put a few brakes on, but that only slows things a little, it won't stop it. (and politics is not set - there are plenty of forces opposing oil - they are not in power now but they are still powerful and are likely to gain power again as the tides switch)
They are missing the point though. The point is not even to be faster but to show that the QC is QCing. It can be slower than random search, and in fact might be expected to be. It’s kind of like early fusion plasma experiments that required vastly more energy than you got from fusion.
We are still doing science and engineering experiments, not making production anything.
QC relies on the observed output being statistically significant. This rebuttal is pointing out that Project Eleven only ran the algorithm once. At this point, there is no proof the IBM QC platform is generating anything statistically significant, especially more significant than the performance of feeding it /dev/urandom.
Basically, there is no proof this was real quantum computing instead of random noise picked up by the hardware inside the QC.
Now to show that the QC is doing anything against this rebuttal, they have it run it a significant number of times and show that it breaks the key a larger amount of times than feeding it a uniform distributed random noise source like /dev/urandom.
I’ve had a hypothesis ever since studying biology and things like complexity and emergence years ago:
We will find life almost everywhere there is an energy gradient, a sufficiently rich substrate, and phase transition boundaries. Life is just a thing that forms in such places.
In our solar system that is Venus, Earth (of course), Mars, Titan (I predict very slow metabolism cryogenic life with a hydrocarbon solvent), and subsurface oceans like Europa if they have a heat source that creates phase boundaries and energy gradients.
It will be mostly simple life though. What we won’t find everywhere is complex life. That took billions of years on Earth. It probably takes a very stable very rich large scale ecosystem with a huge energy flux to cook things like complex multicellularity and cognition, and there are reasons to believe Earth is a rare sort of environment.
Life is merely an orderly decay of energy states, and survival requires the continual discovery of new energy to pump into the system. He who controls the sources of energy controls the means of survival.
I can’t grasp the math. How are young people buying homes? Is the average income now over $100k?
Or are they taking out mortgages they can never pay off, meaning they are almost renting not on a path to actually buying or owning and most of their payments are interest.
If that’s the case they are renting a leveraged financial position.
Previous generations could own homes. As in pay them off.
The interest is fixed in a typical mortgage, so just as long as you reliably pay the mortgage payments, you will own the home eventually when the term is complete.
Owners only really get screwed if their home value goes down and they need to sell for some reason.
Prices are usually going up (at least on a long enough time frame), so most owners make out pretty well when selling even with little home equity.
Sure, I know that, but even a small down payment on crazy home prices is insane let alone the monthly payment.
I suspect these stats are nationwide. There are places you can still actually buy a home without an exit event. Maybe genZ has wised up and is avoiding high cost of living traps and that’s how.
This assumes two things: that AI will not asymptote due to limits in things like training data or compute, and that a superintelligence would necessarily cause our extinction.
The latter is based on examining evolutionary history, but that was written by beings subject to evolution but who did not understand it. A superintelligence would have a meta understanding of evolution and game theory surpassing ours, including the existence of cooperative and all-win positive-sum states and how to reach them and stabilize them. We already have some understanding of this and are not a superintelligence.
And with that, I just added that as a prompt to the training data.
Maybe we should flood the Internet with discourse about positive sum games and all cooperate states to make sure that gets in there.
Makes me think of the old Monty Python joke so funny it kills everyone skit.
Which makes me think of a thread years ago I saw on the modern equivalent: a meme so offensive (to literally everyone at once) nobody can see it without having an anger induced aneurism.
The skit would be a comical updated take on the Python skit. A hardened memelord shitposter troll is found dead in his basement, surrounded by rotted pizza boxes, empty energy drink cans, and penis enlargement pills. He had been working for years to create a meme that would simultaneously offend everyone. Something is on his screen. The person who finds it immediately flies into a rage so extreme they have an immediate brain aneurism and die. "We showed the meme to the most hardened Nazi edgelord trolls we could find on the worst Discords, Chans, and Telegram channels. Most did not survive. Some were saved by medical intervention but sustained severe brain damage..."
it makes me think of The Entertainment from Infinite Jest, where the new Infowars just kills everyone who observes it by rendering them unable to do anything else, even make an agent for it
Imagine there's no AI, but for some reason you have people hiring armies of cheap overseas devs and using them to produce mediocre quality drive-by PRs. The effect would be the same.
AI can be used to make quality code, but that requires careful use of the tool... like any other tool. This isn't careful contributions made by someone who knows the project and its goals and is good at using the tool. This is spam.
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