Doesn't matter anyway what exactly they are saying.
On one side you can interpolate in what direction it can go, than you can also add the general speed we are currently seeying and then you can try it out yourself.
The conclusion?
1. its clear that currently its critical to be aware of whats going on. With this you can act sooner or be part of this
2. if it hits hard but not too hard, you might have an advantage because you know how to use it
3. if its stalls you can reduce your effort in this area
Autopilot is completely different software from FSD. If you think FSD is stupid then Autopilot is worse because it won't do anything other than stay in the same lane and adjust speed to the car in front of you.
For some reason you could turn this on when you're not driving on the highway. It doesn't do anything for traffic lights, stop signs, obstacles, etc. because it's just cruise control. It's also included with every vehicle (unlike FSD).
The difference is FSD is properly annotated as (Supervised) and does exactly that. Autopilot does not 'autopilot' the vehicle by any reasonable measure.
FSD controls every aspect of the vehicle's operation and explicitly demands human supervision. There's nothing misleading or incorrect in the name FSD (Supervised).
Ukraine was not able to interrupt production of gasoline and diesel in Russia in a significant way after two years of targeting oil refineries. Then attacks on pipelines and their pumping stations were not effective either as Russia was able to repair damage within days and weeks. And then all Russian oil terminals on Baltic and Black seas are operational again albeit in reduced capacity after big Ukrainian attacks few weeks ago. Apparently 50-100 kg warheads that Ukrainian drones deliver is not that effective at damaging oil infrastructure.
This may change if Ukraine can sustain what they were doing last couple of months, but so far Russia benefits extremely well from US war against Iran.
The power to the people is not us the developers and coders.
We know how to do a lot of things, how to automate etc.
A billion people do not know this and probably benefit initially a lot more.
When i did some powerpoint presentation, i browsed around and draged images from the browser to the desktop, than i draged them into powerpoint. My collegue looked at me and was bewildered how fast I did all of that.
I've helped an otherwise very successful and capable guy (architect) set up a shortcut on his desktop to shut down his machine. Navigating to the power down option in the menu was too much of a technical hurdle. The gap in needs between the average HNer and the rest of the world is staggering
This. I’m sure everyone has a similar story of how difficult it was to explain the difference between a program shortcut represented as a visual icon on a desktop versus the actual executable itself to somebody who didn’t grow up in the age of computing. And this was Windows… the purported OS for the masses not the classes.
Initially I thought you meant “software architect” and I was flabbergasted at how that’s possible. Took me a minute to realize there’s other architects out there lol.
Oh boy, the gap between the average it professional and ai pros here is already staggering, let alone the rest of the world. I feel like an alien, no matter where.
Yes! Even closing the windows of programs that users no longer need is hard.
It's easy to develop a disconnect with the level that average users operate at when understanding computers deeply is part of the job. I've definitely developed it myself to some extent, but I have occasional moments where my perspective is getting grounded again.
I don't think that's representative of most non-CS professionals. Most people in the fields I know (mostly professors, medical doctors, and businesspeople) can use google chrome, word, powerpoint, and a little of excel decently. There are the occasional few who confuse spreadsheets and databases, but no one who thinks shutting down computers or closing windows is hard. Heck, my ageing dad managed to troubleshoot his printer without any help, and he has no formal computer experience whatsoever.
HN has a long history of patronising the "average user" in the guise of paternal figures who don't realise that what they are doing is belittling the vast majority of tech users. I'm guilty of it myself. But they're capable of a lot more than we think they are.
Ultimately, it comes down to the willingness people have to learn new things. If they're curious enough to think about how things work, they'll be fine.
I'm not doing this to be patronising, more like telling people or myself that assumptions i make, are just not necessarily true for everyone.
And weirdly enough, a Task like sorting a file with data in it, if you are not a professional, windows offers very if not non single way of doing this. You would need to understand file types, understand that csv can be imported for excel, you need excel, than you need to understand excel how to sort stuff in it.
The ffirst thing I do in Excel is select the pseudo table and click on table -> insert to make it a sortable / real table. I showed this to every one in my Team full of studied CS people because non of them knew this.
Well, I didn't mean for this to be patronizing, but rather as a warning that not everybody is at the same level and the spread is huge. I see it often enough.
It's a while since I've used Windows but I seem to remember it giving a choice of sleep, logout, switch session etc. I could totally see someone wanting a single button for it.
Its clear that it will go in this type of direction but Anthropic announced managed agents just a week ago and this again with all the biuld in connections and tools will help so many non computer people to do a lot more faster and better.
I'm waiting for the open source ai ecosystem to catch up :/
Its not the same. Its clearly shit to replace flour with sawdust.
Having different opinions on AI/LLMs doesn't make the use of it the same as replacing flour with sawdust.
The AI 'image' slop for example, i don't think its bad. But i also don't think it takes anything from a real artist. It takes jobs from people with drawing skills but it doesn't change anything for an artist.
LLMs help already a lot because plenty of normal people do not have programming skills. Evaluating test results is a lot harder if you do not know how to program or how to use a computer.
But LLMs compute requirement is so high that it pushes the boundaries of compute, memory and memory bandwidth which is fundamental for curing diseases.
LLMs math / neural networks can and are used for medical research. Simulating a whole body with proteins, cells etc. will bring us the breakthrough we need.
Nothing in modern medicin research is withoout compute.
More accurate biological simulations could help but there is zero reason to expect that LLMs will be an effective platform for such simulations. That's pure speculation and probably wrong.
I think he is to pesimistic, a tool is a tool and if AI progresses without hitting a ceilling, i will see a potential future of a society which might explore space.
Musks SpaceX Keynote was ridiculous, don't get me wrong, but we will be able to see AI progress in the next 5 years which will give us some kind of gut feeling were the journey can go.
Also AI solves another problem: Compute. It was clear that we want some kind of compute but its like with 4k; We have 4k for ages now but it is not the default resolution on all displays sold. We stoped pushing the boundaries because invest is not here. People do not bother too much with it.
With AI and the richest companies and people want to see what happens, pushes the envolope a lot faster, pushes us to find solutions.
This AI Compute based on ML/Neuroal Networks can also be used for physics simulation, protein folding, and everything else.
Stoping technology is not an option and not a solution. Education is. We need to educate people.
Actually, this AI Compute is not very useful for physics, protein folding or many other high performance computing.
The problem is that the connectivity required for much of AI is very different than that required for classic HPC (more emphasis on bandwidth, less on super low latency small payload remote memory operations) and the numeric emphasis is very different (lots of mixed resolution and lots of ridiculously small numeric resolutions like fp8 vs almost all fp64 with some fp32).
The result is that essentially no AI computers reach the high end of the TOP500.
The converse is also true, classic frontier scale super computers don't make the most cost effective AI training platforms because they spend a lot of the budget on making HPC programs fast.
On one side you can interpolate in what direction it can go, than you can also add the general speed we are currently seeying and then you can try it out yourself.
The conclusion?
1. its clear that currently its critical to be aware of whats going on. With this you can act sooner or be part of this
2. if it hits hard but not too hard, you might have an advantage because you know how to use it
3. if its stalls you can reduce your effort in this area
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